A Virtual Workshop on:

Patterns of Electoral Behavior among Women in the Arab World and Context-Dependent Breakthroughs: Towards a Transition from Quantitative to Qualitativ

(A Comparative Study)

9/14/2026

Executive Summary:

This study examines how women’s electoral participation takes shape, alongside the socio-political, cultural, economic, and institutional factors influencing decisions to vote, run for office, or abstain, as well as the nature and efficacy of women's representation upon reaching elected bodies. It operates on the premise that measuring progress in women's political participation must not be confined to voter turnout or the numbers of female candidates and elected officials; rather, it should encompass political decision-making autonomy, selection criteria, competitive conditions, and the actual capacity to influence policy and decision-making.

Furthermore, the study does not assume that women constitute a homogeneous voting bloc, or that gender affiliation necessarily takes precedence over other political and social affiliations and interests. Consequently, a woman's vote for a female candidate is not, in itself, sufficient evidence of decision-making autonomy or a departure from stereotypical behavior; nor does supporting a male candidate automatically signal a lack of autonomy. Rather, the true significance of a political choice is determined by how it was formed, and the extent to which it rests on awareness, freedom, evaluating alternatives, and assessing competence, platforms, past performance, and the public interest.

The study adopts the concept of 'stereotypical voting behavior' to denote recurring patterns in voting, candidacy, representation, and abstention shaped by prevailing socio-cultural, political, and institutional structures. It also uses the concept of 'breakthrough' to signify any meaningful departure from a prior or dominant pattern across one or more levels of the electoral process, revealing that the prevailing norm is no longer absolute without implying its complete disappearance or total overhaul. Meanwhile, 'transformation' refers to a deeper shift characterized by breadth, recurrence, accumulation, sustainability, and the capacity to span candidacy, voting, representation, and efficacy.

The study adopted a predominantly qualitative comparative analytical approach, utilizing descriptive quantitative indicators to illustrate trends derived from field data. It combined a literature review of research, reports, and electoral data with an analysis of breakthroughs across six countries—Jordan, Tunisia, Iraq, Morocco, Egypt, and Lebanon—alongside field research in four of them: Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and Lebanon. The field component relied on qualitative interviews with three categories: female politicians, candidates, and party and civic activists; regular female voters; and intermittent voters and non-voters. Given the purposive and limited nature of the samples, the findings should be interpreted as qualitative and explanatory indicators rather than representative results capable of statistical generalization.

The study reveals that women’s voting behavior in the Arab world is shaped by a complex interplay of family, tribe, sect, political party, political culture, economic resources, media, and the electoral system. These determinants do not operate with equal weight or in the same manner across all countries. In some contexts, family or tribal loyalties take precedence; in others, partisan or sectarian factors emerge, while service-oriented and clientelist considerations intersect with low trust in institutions and the perceived efficacy of participation. While many of these factors affect both men and women, women face additional constraints resulting from the unequal distribution of resources and influence, alongside persistent perceptions that associate leadership and the political sphere with men.

The findings reveal that political autonomy does not represent a binary state sharply dividing independence from dependence; rather, it manifests in cumulative degrees and pathways. A woman may enter the political sphere through a party, family ties, or a quota system, and subsequently gain a broader margin of autonomy through practice, experience, and personal legitimacy. Conversely, she may be organizationally independent yet remain constrained by scarce resources, the electoral system, or social culture. Therefore, the level of autonomy is not determined solely by the pathway of entry, but by the extent of participation in shaping choices and the capacity to review and influence them.

The study also concluded that political and electoral systems are not neutral frameworks; rather, they directly impact women's opportunities to run, compete, and achieve representation. Quotas, electoral lists, appointments, and legal reforms have contributed to clear breakthroughs in women's numerical presence. However, these mechanisms have not automatically led to a parallel shift in voter behavior, intra-party selection mechanisms, or the autonomy and efficacy of elected women. While quotas can open avenues for accumulating experience and reshaping the public image of female politicians, they may also turn into a ceiling for representation if women's victories remain restricted to guaranteed seats rather than expanding into open competition.

Levels of breakthrough varied across the different dimensions of electoral behavior. Candidacy proved to be the most susceptible to breakthroughs, driven by institutional reforms, expanding education, civic engagement, generational shifts, and moments of political opening and protest. Voting behavior, meanwhile, experienced partial shifts marked by the growing importance of competence, platforms, track records, and accountability alongside the persistence of primordial affiliations. The stage of representation and efficacy remained the most resistant to transformation, as the increasing number of elected women was not always accompanied by proportional access to leadership positions, resource ownership, or the capacity to influence legislation, oversight, and decision-making.

Comparative findings highlight contrasting drivers behind regional breakthroughs: Egypt experienced a top-down institutional shift—driven by constitutional amendments and quota systems—that boosted women's numerical presence, though questions persist regarding autonomy and sustainability. In Lebanon, breakthroughs stemmed from grassroots civic and protest momentum following the October 17 uprising, resulting in broader candidacies and reform-oriented narratives, though tangible electoral gains were constrained by entrenched sectarian structures, political parties, and unequal resource distribution.

In Jordan, the breakthrough took a gradual, reform-oriented path, combining an expanded quota system with new avenues for representation through national party lists—though the transition toward policy-driven, party-based competition independent of tribal and local structures remains incomplete.

Meanwhile in Iraq, a multi-faceted breakthrough emerged, driven by quotas, electoral reforms, the ripple effects of protests, and evolving awareness among female voters. This momentum was demonstrated by women winning unreserved seats and the growing weight of performance-based criteria, even as political parties, tribal networks, family ties, and sectarian factions maintain a strong grip on the political sphere.

In comparative theoretical analysis, the cases of Tunisia and Morocco reinforce the core finding regarding the vital role and sustainability of institutional rules. In Tunisia, political opening and gender parity laws initially enabled a major expansion in female candidacy and representation; however, the subsequent erosion of electoral safeguards and the shrinking of political space exposed the fragility of this breakthrough, highlighting its failure to evolve into a sustainable structural shift. In Morocco, incremental institutional reform normalized women’s participation in the electoral process and boosted their representation, yet it failed to eliminate reliance on reserved channels or bridge the gap between numerical presence and actual political influence.

Field research reveals a common denominator across the four nations: the emergence of competence, policy platform, and performance as increasingly prioritized criteria in candidate evaluation, even as the influence of family, tribe, sect, or party persists. This coexistence indicates that political breakthrough does not occur through the outright replacement of old paradigms, but rather through the diversification of criteria, expanded room for individual choice, and a relative weakening of traditional loyalties' monopoly among certain voter segments.

Furthermore, interviews with women who intermittently or fully abstain from voting reveal that non-voting does not necessarily signify apathy or political withdrawal. Abstention often stems from distrust in institutions or electoral integrity, a low sense of vote efficacy, and dissatisfaction with available choices—at times assuming a critical or protest-driven character. Consequently, voter turnout campaigns alone are insufficient to tackle disengagement; addressing it requires boosting institutional trust, ensuring the meaningfulness of participation, and offering genuine political competition with credible choices.

The study concludes that there is no linear or automatic correlation between increased numerical representation and qualitative transformation. While a higher headcount of women marks a significant breakthrough against historical underrepresentation, it does not by itself reveal the origins or depth of that breakthrough, nor does it guarantee political autonomy, efficacy, or influence. Shifting toward substantive representation demands structural prerequisites: equitable access to resources and competitive opportunities, internal party democracy, pathways to leadership, protection against political and digital violence, and direct engagement in policy formation—all while building coalitions around common interests without assuming a singular women's agenda.

The study advocates for formulating a regional Arab reference framework for political empowerment, establishing indicators to evaluate the quality of participation beyond numerical counts—focusing on autonomy, efficacy, and impact—and creating an Arab observatory to track voting behavior and women’s political engagement. It further underscores the necessity of designing empowerment initiatives rooted in national contexts, redirecting awareness campaigns toward informed choice, accountability, and institutional trust restoration, and cultivating sustainable pathways for political leadership, particularly among young women.

To participate in the workshop, please register via the link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/9RZnNsEJTmqOYrngi7XFng